PnL (30d)

+$6

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+31.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

67%

2W / 1L · 1 open

Win Return (30d)

50%

2W / 2L

Trades (30d)

4

across 3 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

+$3.14

avg win $16 · loss $10

Profit Factor

1.63

$16 won / $10 lost

Reward / Risk

1.63

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	73.2% 3,052W/1,117L	1218	$222,648
🌤 Weather	83.7% 435W/85L	130	$23,155
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/4L	1	$5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 5?	Yes	616	1.000	$616.03	$6.03	+1.0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	330	1.000	$330.21	$3.42	+1.0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	256	1.000	$255.72	$2.43	+1.0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 5?	No	188	1.000	$187.69	$9.49	+5.3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 5?	Yes	103	0.996	$102.63	$2.63	+2.6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5?	Yes	24	0.520	$12.33	$2.33	+23.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	42	0.155	$6.46	$1.46	+29.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	125	0.015	$1.94	$-3.06	-61.2%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	3	0.180	$0.62	$-0.38	-37.9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?	No	100	0.001	$0.05	$-0.95	-95.0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	74	0.001	$0.04	$-5.96	-99.4%