PnL (30d)

−$61

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$207

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

48%

123W / 135L · 1,627 open

Win Return (30d)

70%

1,310W / 566L · 9 open

Trades (30d)

1,885

across 191 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

−$0.84

avg win $2 · loss $3

Profit Factor

0.52

$65 won / $126 lost

Reward / Risk

0.58

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$36

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	47.7% 123W/135L	191	$10,207
🏛 Politics	—	31	$2,041
⚽ Sports	—	11	$726
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/9L	10	$1,106
🌤 Weather	70.8% 17W/7L	10	$182
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/9L	4	$258
🎬 Culture	—	4	$102
🔬 Science	—	3	$130
🤖 Tech	—	2	$94

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

43 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	423	0.079	$33.21	$3.17	+10.6%
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	572	0.058	$33.17	$4.57	+16.0%
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	Yes	812	0.041	$32.89	$2.84	+9.4%
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	252	0.130	$32.76	$2.52	+8.3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1,304	0.024	$30.64	$0.65	+2.2%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	652	0.045	$29.67	$-0.33	-1.1%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	3,232	0.009	$29.09	$0.00	+0.0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	288	0.101	$28.94	$-1.01	-3.4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	968	0.029	$28.57	$-1.45	-4.8%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,143	0.013	$27.86	$-2.14	-7.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	3,326	0.007	$24.94	$-4.99	-16.7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	341	0.072	$24.72	$-5.29	-17.6%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	441	0.055	$24.26	$-6.62	-21.4%
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	323	0.075	$24.22	$-4.84	-16.7%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	294	0.075	$22.05	$-7.35	-25.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	588	0.037	$22.05	$-7.35	-25.0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	938	0.024	$22.04	$-7.97	-26.6%
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	Yes	857	0.025	$21.77	$-8.23	-27.4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,333	0.006	$21.66	$-8.33	-27.8%
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1,857	0.011	$21.35	$-4.64	-17.9%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	1,200	0.017	$20.40	$-9.60	-32.0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,200	0.017	$19.80	$-10.20	-34.0%
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	353	0.055	$19.41	$-8.82	-31.2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	257	0.072	$18.66	$-5.28	-22.0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	1,364	0.013	$18.41	$-11.59	-38.6%