PnL (30d)

−$20

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$11

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-8.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

13%

4W / 27L · 28 open

Win Return (30d)

54%

32W / 27L

Trades (30d)

59

across 15 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$2.86

avg win $1 · loss $4

Profit Factor

0.08

$2 won / $22 lost

Reward / Risk

0.21

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	69.6% 190W/83L	100	$8,383
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	4	$53
🏛 Politics	—	3	$13
🌤 Weather	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$4
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$29

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

34 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	199	0.966	$191.81	$25.20	+15.1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	196	0.981	$191.72	$10.89	+6.0%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	148	0.895	$132.33	$48.52	+57.9%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	134	0.885	$118.35	$10.79	+10.0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	262	0.395	$103.32	$6.86	+7.1%
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	135	0.625	$84.11	$4.15	+5.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	79	0.930	$73.55	$7.51	+11.4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	74	0.865	$64.14	$-1.61	-2.4%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	102	0.590	$60.22	$15.31	+34.1%
Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	61	0.989	$60.14	$4.99	+9.0%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	100	0.580	$57.77	$4.02	+7.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	60	0.635	$38.09	$6.10	+19.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	40	0.685	$27.13	$10.83	+66.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	29	0.785	$22.55	$7.14	+46.3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	60	0.345	$20.72	$7.69	+59.0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	24	0.875	$20.71	$0.83	+4.2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	28	0.630	$17.65	$6.63	+60.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	16	0.850	$13.86	$0.98	+7.6%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	14	0.968	$13.13	$1.05	+8.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	25	0.466	$11.48	$4.63	+67.6%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	10	0.940	$9.29	$0.49	+5.6%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	12	0.705	$8.43	$3.05	+56.7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Yes	63	0.125	$7.83	$0.31	+4.2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	39	0.175	$6.80	$3.30	+94.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	96	0.065	$6.25	$-2.40	-27.8%