| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
199 |
0.969 |
$192.41 |
$25.80 |
+15.5% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
196 |
0.978 |
$191.13 |
$10.31 |
+5.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
148 |
0.905 |
$133.81 |
$50.00 |
+59.7% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? |
No |
134 |
0.885 |
$118.35 |
$10.79 |
+10.0% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Yes |
262 |
0.395 |
$103.32 |
$6.86 |
+7.1% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
135 |
0.625 |
$84.11 |
$4.15 |
+5.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
79 |
0.925 |
$73.16 |
$7.12 |
+10.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
74 |
0.875 |
$64.88 |
$-0.87 |
-1.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
102 |
0.630 |
$64.30 |
$19.39 |
+43.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
No |
61 |
0.988 |
$60.08 |
$4.93 |
+8.9% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
100 |
0.585 |
$58.27 |
$4.52 |
+8.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.655 |
$39.29 |
$7.30 |
+22.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.715 |
$28.32 |
$12.02 |
+73.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
29 |
0.815 |
$23.41 |
$8.00 |
+51.9% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? |
No |
60 |
0.345 |
$20.72 |
$7.69 |
+59.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
No |
24 |
0.875 |
$20.71 |
$0.83 |
+4.2% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? |
Yes |
28 |
0.610 |
$17.09 |
$6.07 |
+55.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
16 |
0.870 |
$14.19 |
$1.30 |
+10.1% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? |
No |
14 |
0.967 |
$13.12 |
$1.04 |
+8.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
25 |
0.400 |
$9.84 |
$2.99 |
+43.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
10 |
0.950 |
$9.39 |
$0.59 |
+6.7% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
12 |
0.710 |
$8.49 |
$3.11 |
+57.8% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
63 |
0.125 |
$7.83 |
$0.31 |
+4.2% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? |
Yes |
39 |
0.175 |
$6.80 |
$3.30 |
+94.4% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 |
Yes |
35 |
0.185 |
$6.39 |
$-3.68 |
-36.6% |