| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.830 |
$4.15 |
$2.25 |
+118.4% |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
Yes |
8 |
0.385 |
$3.27 |
$0.38 |
+13.2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
11 |
0.255 |
$2.81 |
$-0.17 |
-5.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
8 |
0.305 |
$2.56 |
$-0.38 |
-12.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.345 |
$2.41 |
$0.52 |
+27.7% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
6 |
0.400 |
$2.20 |
$0.22 |
+11.1% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
Yes |
6 |
0.340 |
$2.04 |
$0.30 |
+17.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.255 |
$1.78 |
$-0.94 |
-34.6% |
| Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? |
Yes |
9 |
0.185 |
$1.67 |
$-1.12 |
-40.3% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.095 |
$1.62 |
$-0.43 |
-20.8% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
21 |
0.075 |
$1.57 |
$-1.36 |
-46.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
2 |
0.710 |
$1.42 |
$0.92 |
+184.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? |
Yes |
6 |
0.220 |
$1.32 |
$-0.42 |
-24.1% |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? |
Yes |
9 |
0.145 |
$1.30 |
$-1.67 |
-56.1% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? |
Yes |
5 |
0.215 |
$1.07 |
$-0.78 |
-41.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
Yes |
8 |
0.105 |
$0.88 |
$-2.06 |
-70.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
20 |
0.031 |
$0.62 |
$-3.78 |
-85.9% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
Yes |
9 |
0.060 |
$0.54 |
$-2.43 |
-81.8% |
| Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? |
No |
8 |
0.047 |
$0.38 |
$-2.58 |
-87.3% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
9 |
0.001 |
$0.00 |
$-2.99 |
-99.8% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
5 |
0.001 |
$0.00 |
$-1.69 |
-99.9% |