| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.785 |
$3.92 |
$2.02 |
+106.6% |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
Yes |
8 |
0.385 |
$3.27 |
$0.38 |
+13.2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
11 |
0.255 |
$2.81 |
$-0.17 |
-5.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
8 |
0.305 |
$2.56 |
$-0.38 |
-12.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.365 |
$2.55 |
$0.66 |
+35.2% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
6 |
0.375 |
$2.06 |
$0.08 |
+4.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.290 |
$2.03 |
$-0.70 |
-25.6% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
Yes |
6 |
0.320 |
$1.92 |
$0.18 |
+10.3% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
21 |
0.075 |
$1.57 |
$-1.36 |
-46.4% |
| Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? |
Yes |
9 |
0.175 |
$1.57 |
$-1.22 |
-43.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
2 |
0.705 |
$1.41 |
$0.91 |
+182.0% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.080 |
$1.36 |
$-0.68 |
-33.3% |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? |
Yes |
9 |
0.145 |
$1.30 |
$-1.67 |
-56.1% |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? |
Yes |
6 |
0.215 |
$1.29 |
$-0.45 |
-25.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? |
Yes |
5 |
0.215 |
$1.07 |
$-0.78 |
-41.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
Yes |
8 |
0.110 |
$0.92 |
$-2.02 |
-68.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
20 |
0.031 |
$0.62 |
$-3.78 |
-85.9% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
Yes |
9 |
0.060 |
$0.54 |
$-2.43 |
-81.8% |
| Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? |
No |
8 |
0.047 |
$0.38 |
$-2.58 |
-87.3% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
9 |
0.004 |
$0.03 |
$-2.97 |
-98.9% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
5 |
0.004 |
$0.02 |
$-1.67 |
-99.0% |