PnL (30d)

−$51

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

$0

no open positions

ROI (30d)

-18.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

10%

8W / 70L · 2 open

Win Return (30d)

10%

8W / 70L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

80

across 23 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$2.31

avg win $23 · loss $6

Profit Factor

0.57

$68 won / $118 lost

Reward / Risk

3.62

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$17

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	35.6% 1,114W/2,017L	380	$29,868
🌤 Weather	32.7% 80W/165L	23	$1,534
🏛 Politics	21.4% 3W/11L	4	$105
🎬 Culture	21.4% 3W/11L	4	$105

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6?	Yes	179	0.205	$36.77	$3.40	+10.2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 5?	Yes	1,500	0.001	$0.75	$-7.15	-90.5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 6?	Yes	1,250	0.001	$0.62	$-5.64	-90.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	1,000	0.001	$0.50	$-0.50	-50.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 6?	Yes	1,000	0.001	$0.50	$-0.50	-50.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5?	Yes	500	0.001	$0.25	$-96.62	-99.7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 5?	Yes	120	0.002	$0.24	$-2.16	-90.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	300	0.001	$0.15	$-4.62	-96.9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	207	0.001	$0.10	$-9.97	-99.0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 5?	Yes	195	0.001	$0.10	$-35.40	-99.7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5?	Yes	100	0.001	$0.05	$-9.95	-99.5%