alligator.
0x6e881e6e5035cdbb7c2208013af4db2793b2bd30
PnL (30d)
−$689
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$22
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-16.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
45%
134W / 165L · 20 open
Win Return (30d)
45%
144W / 175L
Trades (30d)
319
across 123 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$5.99
avg win $20 · loss $33
Profit Factor
0.63
$1,151 won / $1,840 lost
Reward / Risk
0.59
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$162
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $629 · all-time $427,878
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31? |
No |
112 |
0.680 |
$76.27 |
$31.53 |
+70.5% |
| Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas? |
Yes |
40 |
0.775 |
$30.97 |
$-0.20 |
-0.6% |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? |
Yes |
40 |
0.460 |
$18.40 |
$1.60 |
+9.5% |
| Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? |
Yes |
22 |
0.595 |
$12.80 |
$1.40 |
+12.3% |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
100 |
0.075 |
$7.50 |
$-3.50 |
-31.8% |
| Will there be exactly 5 ChatGPT outages in August 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.140 |
$7.00 |
$-2.50 |
-26.3% |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026? |
Yes |
42 |
0.120 |
$5.04 |
$-0.42 |
-7.7% |
| Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? |
Yes |
1 |
0.680 |
$1.01 |
$0.10 |
+11.5% |