| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
616 |
0.825 |
$508.10 |
$-26.04 |
-4.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
404 |
0.695 |
$280.79 |
$-26.12 |
-8.5% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
304 |
0.740 |
$224.70 |
$82.79 |
+58.3% |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
219 |
0.996 |
$217.74 |
$7.85 |
+3.7% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
148 |
1.000 |
$148.24 |
$10.83 |
+7.9% |
| Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? |
Yes |
204 |
0.695 |
$141.94 |
$-40.07 |
-22.0% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
4,708 |
0.029 |
$138.89 |
$89.44 |
+180.9% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
321 |
0.400 |
$128.42 |
$3.50 |
+2.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
142 |
0.865 |
$122.52 |
$20.54 |
+20.1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House |
Yes |
294 |
0.395 |
$116.15 |
$-4.41 |
-3.7% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
186 |
0.600 |
$111.51 |
$-52.13 |
-31.9% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,080 |
0.052 |
$109.19 |
$22.77 |
+26.4% |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
19,196 |
0.005 |
$105.58 |
$-54.69 |
-34.1% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
116 |
0.865 |
$100.58 |
$0.58 |
+0.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
112 |
0.795 |
$88.97 |
$30.52 |
+52.2% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
99 |
0.725 |
$72.04 |
$-0.36 |
-0.5% |
| Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? |
Yes |
115 |
0.515 |
$59.16 |
$-3.89 |
-6.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
57 |
0.998 |
$57.28 |
$0.60 |
+1.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
55 |
0.987 |
$54.42 |
$1.68 |
+3.2% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
No |
52 |
0.984 |
$51.06 |
$1.06 |
+2.1% |
| Will Trump say "Through the Roof" in August? |
Yes |
54 |
0.934 |
$50.31 |
$-2.50 |
-4.7% |
| Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? |
No |
70 |
0.680 |
$47.91 |
$-1.41 |
-2.9% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
63 |
0.710 |
$45.08 |
$8.54 |
+23.4% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
No |
85 |
0.515 |
$43.69 |
$-4.60 |
-9.5% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat? |
No |
135 |
0.305 |
$41.23 |
$-4.73 |
-10.3% |