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Trader leaderboard/Belgaron

Belgaron

0x6c104a31c105ab2573a42e0f178f961e4496df5c
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$82
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$32
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
50%
5W / 5L · 92 open
Win Return (30d)
65%
66W / 36L
Trades (30d)
102
across 21 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
−$20.58
avg win $97 · loss $138
Profit Factor
0.70
$195 won / $277 lost
Reward / Risk
0.70
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$57
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $61,972 · all-time $1,540,241

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 88.6% 592W/76L 262 $298,758
🏛 Politics 100.0% 11W/0L 62 $32,139
⚽ Sports 67.9% 19W/9L 22 $3,877
💵 Economy 100.0% 9W/0L 16 $10,260
₿ Crypto 16 $8,887
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/1L 14 $4,358
🤖 Tech 5 $721
🔬 Science 1 $769

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 10,837 0.885 $9,590.87 $495.17 +5.4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 8,882 0.755 $6,705.60 $495.06 +8.0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 5,415 0.967 $5,236.06 $768.92 +17.2%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes 4,870 0.923 $4,497.37 $404.06 +9.9%
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No 4,808 0.926 $4,452.11 $153.65 +3.6%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 4,340 0.920 $3,993.10 $361.08 +9.9%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 3,955 0.895 $3,540.14 $337.76 +10.5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3,788 0.845 $3,200.80 $288.73 +9.9%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? No 2,989 0.972 $2,904.21 $336.23 +13.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 6,014 0.455 $2,736.30 $295.97 +12.1%
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? No 3,000 0.888 $2,665.50 $-1.50 -0.1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10,120 0.259 $2,616.02 $227.76 +9.5%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 2,921 0.895 $2,614.36 $24.41 +0.9%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? No 2,909 0.881 $2,562.83 $-72.87 -2.8%
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 4,100 0.615 $2,521.47 $-301.48 -10.7%
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes 3,007 0.800 $2,405.33 $210.91 +9.6%
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 2,639 0.895 $2,362.05 $87.54 +3.8%
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? No 2,566 0.890 $2,283.94 $78.50 +3.6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No 2,300 0.925 $2,127.49 $74.50 +3.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 3,200 0.615 $1,968.00 $364.00 +22.7%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 2,207 0.865 $1,909.23 $171.61 +9.9%
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes 2,044 0.925 $1,890.84 $67.81 +3.7%
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes 1,936 0.840 $1,626.09 $7.01 +0.4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? No 1,800 0.895 $1,611.00 $39.00 +2.5%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No 1,800 0.885 $1,593.00 $243.10 +18.0%