PnL (30d)

−$795

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-6.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

74%

78W / 28L · 3 open

Win Return (30d)

74%

81W / 28L

Trades (30d)

109

across 21 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$39.77

avg win $10 · loss $986

Profit Factor

0.19

$191 won / $986 lost

Reward / Risk

0.01

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$986

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	80.0% 413W/103L	81	$45,161
🌤 Weather	62.7% 47W/28L	12	$10,831

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	9,306	0.945	$8,794.56	$849.68	+10.7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	6,927	0.973	$6,736.23	$90.97	+1.4%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	913	0.981	$895.57	$15.26	+1.7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5?	No	800	0.951	$760.78	$-19.10	-2.4%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	616	0.986	$607.22	$14.23	+2.4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on August 5?	No	500	1.000	$499.74	$2.25	+0.5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 5?	No	500	0.997	$498.25	$1.25	+0.3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 6?	No	500	0.975	$487.50	$-2.50	-0.5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 5?	No	500	0.925	$462.49	$-10.50	-2.2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 5?	No	300	1.000	$299.85	$5.85	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 5?	No	300	1.000	$299.85	$5.55	+1.9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 5?	No	300	1.000	$299.85	$4.35	+1.5%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	800	0.255	$204.00	$-20.00	-8.9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 5?	No	154	0.989	$151.73	$-0.88	-0.6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 6?	No	150	0.985	$147.75	$2.25	+1.5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 5?	No	97	1.000	$97.27	$0.63	+0.7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 6?	No	93	0.985	$91.52	$0.46	+0.5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 5?	No	79	0.970	$76.45	$12.61	+19.8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 7?	No	20	0.915	$18.30	$0.30	+1.7%