PnL (30d)

−$192

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$2,778

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-2.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

38%

57W / 92L · 91 open

Win Return (30d)

25%

60W / 180L

Trades (30d)

240

across 49 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$5.99

avg win $44 · loss $36

Profit Factor

0.73

$529 won / $720 lost

Reward / Risk

1.22

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$80

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	38.3% 57W/92L	49	$9,611
🏛 Politics	—	1	$83

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

29 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	1,219	0.215	$262.12	$-798.82	-75.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	1,560	0.115	$179.40	$-543.21	-75.2%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	No	354	0.358	$126.71	$-121.05	-48.9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	450	0.255	$114.75	$-99.75	-46.5%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	975	0.115	$112.07	$-206.72	-64.8%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	389	0.257	$99.92	$47.60	+91.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	541	0.165	$89.24	$-262.76	-74.6%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	638	0.125	$79.81	$-3.19	-3.8%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	1,035	0.070	$72.45	$-116.54	-61.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	300	0.235	$70.50	$-86.50	-55.1%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	1,210	0.055	$66.55	$-323.14	-82.9%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	190	0.265	$50.35	$-25.65	-33.8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	330	0.150	$49.66	$-173.73	-77.8%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	600	0.060	$36.00	$-82.00	-69.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	138	0.155	$21.31	$0.02	+0.1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	225	0.065	$14.62	$-65.87	-81.8%
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Yes	235	0.053	$12.46	$-3.58	-22.3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	120	0.095	$11.40	$-36.80	-76.3%
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	100	0.100	$10.00	$-20.00	-66.7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	300	0.029	$8.70	$-18.30	-67.8%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	72	0.110	$7.90	$-22.10	-73.7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	200	0.031	$6.20	$-39.80	-86.5%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	110	0.037	$4.12	$-6.66	-61.7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	100	0.037	$3.75	$-14.25	-79.2%
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	50	0.043	$2.15	$0.44	+26.2%