PnL (30d)

+$16

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$47

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+1.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

54%

22W / 19L · 3 open

Win Return (30d)

50%

22W / 22L

Trades (30d)

44

across 8 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

+$3.24

avg win $33 · loss $41

Profit Factor

1.20

$99 won / $83 lost

Reward / Risk

0.80

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

29 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	1,219	0.205	$249.93	$-811.02	-76.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	1,560	0.105	$163.80	$-558.81	-77.3%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	No	354	0.355	$125.82	$-121.94	-49.2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	450	0.255	$114.75	$-99.75	-46.5%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	389	0.254	$98.56	$46.24	+88.4%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	975	0.095	$92.58	$-226.21	-71.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	541	0.165	$89.24	$-262.76	-74.6%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	638	0.125	$79.81	$-3.19	-3.8%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	1,210	0.060	$72.60	$-317.09	-81.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	300	0.215	$64.50	$-92.50	-58.9%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	1,035	0.060	$62.10	$-126.89	-67.1%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	190	0.260	$49.40	$-26.60	-35.0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	330	0.147	$48.67	$-174.72	-78.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	600	0.055	$33.00	$-85.00	-72.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	138	0.165	$22.69	$1.40	+6.6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	225	0.065	$14.62	$-65.87	-81.8%
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Yes	235	0.051	$11.87	$-4.16	-26.0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	120	0.095	$11.40	$-36.80	-76.3%
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	100	0.095	$9.50	$-20.50	-68.3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	300	0.026	$7.95	$-19.05	-70.6%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	72	0.105	$7.54	$-22.46	-74.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	200	0.034	$6.80	$-39.20	-85.2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	110	0.038	$4.18	$-6.60	-61.2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	100	0.037	$3.75	$-14.25	-79.2%
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	50	0.042	$2.08	$0.38	+22.1%