PnL (30d)

+$15

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$294

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

89%

16W / 2L · 259 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

146W / 121L · 10 open

Trades (30d)

277

across 94 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

+$1.63

avg win $22 · loss $70

Profit Factor

1.10

$155 won / $140 lost

Reward / Risk

0.32

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$3

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	88.9% 16W/2L	94	$37,186
🏛 Politics	100.0% 1W/0L	33	$11,964
💵 Economy	—	5	$1,039
🎬 Culture	—	4	$441
₿ Crypto	—	4	$1,036
🤖 Tech	—	2	$31
⚽ Sports	—	2	$356

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

104 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	20,616	0.235	$4,844.65	$134.23	+2.8%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	3,027	0.485	$1,468.32	$381.94	+35.2%
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?	Yes	854	0.915	$781.23	$4.27	+0.5%
Will the Republican Party win the TN-03 House seat?	Yes	844	0.925	$781.16	$4.22	+0.5%
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	1,096	0.710	$778.11	$-23.82	-3.0%
Will the Republican Party win the MO-03 House seat?	Yes	873	0.890	$776.97	$0.00	+0.0%
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Yes	829	0.920	$762.50	$8.29	+1.1%
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	4,114	0.185	$761.01	$-354.33	-31.8%
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	826	0.835	$689.41	$20.95	+3.1%
Will the Republican Party win the IA-04 House seat?	Yes	665	0.925	$615.14	$3.33	+0.5%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	587	0.966	$567.17	$150.31	+36.1%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	2,139	0.257	$549.76	$179.09	+48.3%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	468	0.845	$395.32	$6.15	+1.6%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Yes	538	0.641	$344.90	$300.10	+669.8%
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	No	394	0.835	$329.30	$-8.80	-2.6%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	7,664	0.043	$325.73	$-13.18	-3.9%
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	840	0.385	$323.39	$63.00	+24.2%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	400	0.760	$304.00	$20.00	+7.0%
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	325	0.795	$258.38	$45.13	+21.2%
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	231	0.949	$219.41	$-2.54	-1.1%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	583	0.265	$154.37	$16.40	+11.9%
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	200	0.770	$154.00	$148.95	+2950.5%
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	5,653	0.026	$146.98	$-64.91	-30.6%
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	244	0.590	$143.97	$14.35	+11.1%
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	494	0.275	$135.90	$41.01	+43.2%