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Trader leaderboard/WalterSobchack

WalterSobchack

0x64befd4360723d4fd0ad845b99dd69f14b3ac653
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$12
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$4
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
53%
163W / 144L · 38 open
Win Return (30d)
52%
180W / 165L
Trades (30d)
345
across 44 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
−$0.32
avg win $1 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.62
$20 won / $32 lost
Reward / Risk
0.69
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$18
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $12,782 · all-time $2,506,293

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 40.3% 2,012W/2,982L 283 $213,226
🌤 Weather 54.8% 97W/80L 27 $850
🏛 Politics 17 $6,542
⚽ Sports 4 $1,073
🔬 Science 2 $12
🎬 Culture 1 $4

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

157 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 5,656 0.539 $3,051.19 $1,256.58 +70.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4,989 0.261 $1,299.70 $-171.65 -11.7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1,583 0.655 $1,036.99 $102.61 +11.0%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 722 0.997 $719.20 $101.48 +16.4%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 700 0.927 $649.25 $107.30 +19.8%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 491 0.967 $474.34 $78.24 +19.8%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 1,011 0.461 $465.34 $-7.45 -1.6%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 447 0.967 $432.25 $208.75 +93.4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 427 0.962 $410.47 $117.36 +40.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 538 0.740 $397.53 $8.56 +2.2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 426 0.786 $335.05 $44.87 +15.5%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 471 0.680 $320.08 $6.34 +2.0%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 471 0.643 $303.36 $35.63 +13.3%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 400 0.745 $298.01 $58.31 +24.3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 284 0.971 $275.56 $20.63 +8.1%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 2,848 0.095 $270.59 $-1,245.79 -82.2%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 807 0.320 $258.40 $1.50 +0.6%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 2,359 0.095 $224.10 $-61.47 -21.5%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 335 0.635 $212.54 $25.24 +13.5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 964 0.213 $205.92 $-123.49 -37.5%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 201 0.980 $196.88 $27.26 +16.1%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 200 0.945 $189.00 $23.00 +13.9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 510 0.345 $175.98 $-70.51 -28.6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 300 0.540 $162.15 $12.15 +8.1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 216 0.723 $156.06 $48.06 +44.5%