cookiejar
0x614ef98a8be021de3a974942b2fb98794ff34f1b
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$1,370
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$90
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-4.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
38%
6W / 10L · 1 open
Win Return (30d)
35%
6W / 11L
Trades (30d)
17
across 7 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$228.32
avg win $156 · loss $613
Profit Factor
0.26
$469 won / $1,839 lost
Reward / Risk
0.26
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,738
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $12,109 · all-time $16,507,179
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
5,314 |
0.992 |
$5,271.91 |
$847.64 |
+19.2% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
1,334 |
0.994 |
$1,325.23 |
$206.00 |
+18.4% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.245 |
$490.00 |
$-90.00 |
-15.5% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,053 |
0.115 |
$351.11 |
$-870.14 |
-71.2% |
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? |
No |
279 |
0.525 |
$146.52 |
$-10.10 |
-6.4% |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,177 |
0.041 |
$47.67 |
$-70.04 |
-59.5% |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? |
Yes |
58 |
0.505 |
$29.36 |
$-3.20 |
-9.8% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
1 |
0.857 |
$0.86 |
$0.36 |
+71.3% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1 |
0.143 |
$0.14 |
$-0.36 |
-71.3% |