cookiejar
0x614ef98a8be021de3a974942b2fb98794ff34f1b
PnL (30d)
−$877
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$84
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
26%
10W / 29L · 4 open
Win Return (30d)
23%
10W / 33L
Trades (30d)
43
across 19 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$54.83
avg win $148 · loss $213
Profit Factor
0.54
$1,036 won / $1,913 lost
Reward / Risk
0.70
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,738
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $12,109 · all-time $16,507,179
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
5,314 |
0.997 |
$5,295.83 |
$871.55 |
+19.7% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
1,334 |
0.996 |
$1,328.56 |
$209.34 |
+18.7% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.250 |
$500.00 |
$-80.00 |
-13.8% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,053 |
0.115 |
$351.11 |
$-870.14 |
-71.2% |
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? |
No |
279 |
0.525 |
$146.52 |
$-10.10 |
-6.4% |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,177 |
0.041 |
$48.26 |
$-69.45 |
-59.0% |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? |
Yes |
58 |
0.500 |
$29.07 |
$-3.49 |
-10.7% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
1 |
0.857 |
$0.86 |
$0.36 |
+71.3% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1 |
0.143 |
$0.14 |
$-0.36 |
-71.3% |