| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
120,000 |
0.845 |
$101,400.04 |
$14,168.65 |
+16.2% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
80,000 |
0.855 |
$68,400.02 |
$21,163.04 |
+44.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
99,970 |
0.675 |
$67,479.68 |
$6,592.72 |
+10.8% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
57,093 |
0.823 |
$46,958.86 |
$16,423.78 |
+53.8% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
48,820 |
0.853 |
$41,618.98 |
$9,900.39 |
+31.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
38,032 |
0.620 |
$23,579.94 |
$1,721.37 |
+7.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
24,219 |
0.962 |
$23,299.05 |
$669.69 |
+3.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
20,000 |
0.915 |
$18,300.01 |
$5,999.40 |
+48.8% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
20,000 |
0.905 |
$18,100.03 |
$4,871.05 |
+36.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
20,000 |
0.815 |
$16,298.03 |
$5,103.35 |
+45.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.945 |
$14,175.06 |
$1,272.28 |
+9.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.845 |
$12,675.01 |
$5,234.12 |
+70.3% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
8,000 |
0.987 |
$7,892.00 |
$161.01 |
+2.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
7,243 |
0.999 |
$7,236.08 |
$2,455.49 |
+51.4% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
7,014 |
0.675 |
$4,734.61 |
$724.61 |
+18.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
4,398 |
0.998 |
$4,389.50 |
$1,397.03 |
+46.7% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
4,058 |
0.945 |
$3,834.41 |
$182.59 |
+5.0% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
5,013 |
0.715 |
$3,584.47 |
$699.74 |
+24.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
3,803 |
0.875 |
$3,327.66 |
$19.02 |
+0.6% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.820 |
$2,460.00 |
$150.00 |
+6.5% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
2,500 |
0.845 |
$2,112.50 |
$15.58 |
+0.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
3,500 |
0.540 |
$1,890.00 |
$-333.11 |
-15.0% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.964 |
$963.50 |
$163.50 |
+20.4% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
975 |
0.946 |
$922.07 |
$326.37 |
+54.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.585 |
$877.49 |
$-22.50 |
-2.5% |