| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
437,893 |
0.385 |
$168,588.98 |
$38,514.48 |
+29.6% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
72,277 |
0.455 |
$32,886.03 |
$7,095.86 |
+27.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
170,058 |
0.155 |
$26,358.95 |
$1,870.30 |
+7.6% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
32,295 |
0.735 |
$23,736.69 |
$11,632.66 |
+96.1% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
68,680 |
0.235 |
$16,139.79 |
$-390.65 |
-2.4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? |
No |
10,000 |
0.973 |
$9,724.94 |
$625.00 |
+6.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
30,509 |
0.300 |
$9,152.58 |
$2,218.77 |
+32.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
19,742 |
0.445 |
$8,785.24 |
$152.45 |
+1.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
24,361 |
0.355 |
$8,648.18 |
$-3,472.69 |
-28.7% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
778,061 |
0.011 |
$8,169.64 |
$1,157.75 |
+16.5% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
18,076 |
0.445 |
$8,043.98 |
$26.92 |
+0.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
12,449 |
0.595 |
$7,407.22 |
$186.74 |
+2.6% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
78,240 |
0.088 |
$6,924.24 |
$2,431.46 |
+54.1% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? |
No |
10,710 |
0.615 |
$6,586.45 |
$347.56 |
+5.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
8,659 |
0.650 |
$5,628.10 |
$871.36 |
+18.3% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
20,348 |
0.259 |
$5,259.89 |
$-1,748.83 |
-25.0% |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
8,043 |
0.595 |
$4,785.39 |
$120.64 |
+2.6% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
4,952 |
0.956 |
$4,733.65 |
$1,209.60 |
+34.3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
49,804 |
0.095 |
$4,731.34 |
$-3,787.41 |
-44.5% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
5,000 |
0.945 |
$4,725.00 |
$75.01 |
+1.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.455 |
$4,549.99 |
$-649.98 |
-12.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
4,934 |
0.785 |
$3,872.86 |
$3,164.12 |
+446.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6,000 |
0.635 |
$3,809.99 |
$-79.99 |
-2.1% |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
No |
3,793 |
0.860 |
$3,262.13 |
$1,671.54 |
+105.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
3,666 |
0.870 |
$3,189.61 |
$826.74 |
+35.0% |