| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
437,893 |
0.375 |
$164,210.05 |
$34,135.55 |
+26.2% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
72,277 |
0.455 |
$32,886.03 |
$7,095.86 |
+27.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
170,058 |
0.165 |
$28,059.53 |
$3,570.87 |
+14.6% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
32,295 |
0.735 |
$23,736.69 |
$11,632.66 |
+96.1% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
68,680 |
0.235 |
$16,139.79 |
$-390.65 |
-2.4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? |
No |
10,000 |
0.963 |
$9,624.95 |
$525.00 |
+5.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
30,509 |
0.305 |
$9,305.12 |
$2,371.31 |
+34.2% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
19,742 |
0.445 |
$8,785.24 |
$152.45 |
+1.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
24,361 |
0.345 |
$8,402.13 |
$-3,718.74 |
-30.7% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
777,805 |
0.011 |
$8,166.95 |
$1,157.37 |
+16.5% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
18,076 |
0.445 |
$8,043.98 |
$26.92 |
+0.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
12,449 |
0.595 |
$7,407.22 |
$186.74 |
+2.6% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
78,240 |
0.088 |
$6,924.24 |
$2,431.46 |
+54.1% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? |
No |
10,668 |
0.620 |
$6,614.25 |
$400.67 |
+6.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
8,659 |
0.655 |
$5,671.39 |
$914.65 |
+19.2% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
20,348 |
0.261 |
$5,300.59 |
$-1,708.13 |
-24.4% |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
8,043 |
0.595 |
$4,785.39 |
$120.64 |
+2.6% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
49,804 |
0.095 |
$4,731.34 |
$-3,787.41 |
-44.5% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
5,000 |
0.945 |
$4,725.00 |
$75.01 |
+1.6% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
4,952 |
0.954 |
$4,723.75 |
$1,199.69 |
+34.0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.465 |
$4,649.99 |
$-549.98 |
-10.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
4,934 |
0.785 |
$3,872.86 |
$3,164.12 |
+446.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6,000 |
0.635 |
$3,809.99 |
$-79.99 |
-2.1% |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
No |
3,801 |
0.860 |
$3,268.54 |
$1,674.83 |
+105.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
6,209 |
0.517 |
$3,212.91 |
$1,519.66 |
+89.7% |