| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
17,619 |
0.845 |
$14,887.92 |
$697.95 |
+4.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
13,867 |
0.815 |
$11,300.30 |
$3,041.12 |
+36.8% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
14,296 |
0.785 |
$11,222.44 |
$2,772.08 |
+32.8% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
12,155 |
0.825 |
$10,028.20 |
$2,783.20 |
+38.4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
11,864 |
0.675 |
$8,008.47 |
$1,008.49 |
+14.4% |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
10,871 |
0.675 |
$7,338.02 |
$261.12 |
+3.7% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
9,545 |
0.745 |
$7,110.78 |
$1,463.82 |
+25.9% |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
10,108 |
0.665 |
$6,721.77 |
$537.33 |
+8.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
7,069 |
0.905 |
$6,397.62 |
$433.19 |
+7.3% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
6,000 |
0.924 |
$5,546.99 |
$303.00 |
+5.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
6,501 |
0.850 |
$5,525.77 |
$269.28 |
+5.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
11,002 |
0.490 |
$5,390.89 |
$-1,196.02 |
-18.2% |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
5,964 |
0.725 |
$4,324.20 |
$-359.34 |
-7.7% |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? |
No |
4,419 |
0.875 |
$3,866.76 |
$1,037.47 |
+36.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
4,044 |
0.940 |
$3,800.98 |
$800.98 |
+26.7% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? |
Yes |
10,323 |
0.355 |
$3,664.74 |
$464.75 |
+14.5% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
No |
5,580 |
0.605 |
$3,376.04 |
$273.86 |
+8.8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
2,708 |
0.895 |
$2,424.05 |
$394.78 |
+19.5% |
| Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? |
No |
3,244 |
0.715 |
$2,319.44 |
$438.61 |
+23.3% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
5,306 |
0.405 |
$2,149.05 |
$-232.94 |
-9.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
2,945 |
0.715 |
$2,105.70 |
$702.80 |
+50.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
11,115 |
0.170 |
$1,889.50 |
$-1,696.27 |
-47.3% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
5,791 |
0.288 |
$1,667.91 |
$-150.30 |
-8.3% |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? |
Yes |
2,495 |
0.645 |
$1,609.59 |
$1,419.09 |
+744.9% |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? |
Yes |
3,450 |
0.425 |
$1,466.28 |
$801.24 |
+120.5% |