PnL (30d)

−$410

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$16

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-11.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

10%

7W / 63L · 138 open

Win Return (30d)

48%

100W / 108L

Trades (30d)

208

across 24 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

−$58.62

avg win $6 · loss $69

Profit Factor

0.01

$6 won / $416 lost

Reward / Risk

0.08

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	10.0% 7W/63L	24	$6,229
🏛 Politics	—	4	$298

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	764	0.835	$638.02	$66.26	+11.6%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	1,261	0.455	$573.69	$-114.65	-16.7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	605	0.885	$535.58	$49.88	+10.3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	416	0.915	$380.85	$45.81	+13.7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	463	0.775	$359.14	$13.58	+3.9%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	1,142	0.285	$325.25	$-127.85	-28.2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	329	0.805	$264.84	$45.97	+21.0%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	657	0.370	$243.20	$-33.64	-12.2%
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	328	0.735	$241.41	$27.50	+12.9%
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	261	0.745	$194.74	$30.97	+18.9%
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	330	0.405	$133.60	$-14.75	-9.9%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	136	0.915	$124.08	$5.32	+4.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	145	0.855	$123.80	$22.44	+22.1%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	110	0.969	$106.40	$1.47	+1.4%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	87	0.920	$79.79	$4.48	+5.9%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	80	0.815	$65.19	$1.99	+3.2%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	60	0.630	$37.80	$-1.15	-3.0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	No	32	0.625	$20.31	$4.84	+31.3%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	14	0.815	$11.60	$0.92	+8.7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	14	0.650	$9.16	$2.26	+32.7%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	12	0.710	$8.17	$0.46	+6.0%