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0x5c53bbdc3cd4ff877d7d3a41de95727fa9690109
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$18
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$3
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-10.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
14%
5W / 31L · 2 open
Win Return (30d)
16%
6W / 32L
Trades (30d)
38
across 9 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$2.55
avg win $0 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.03
$0 won / $18 lost
Reward / Risk
0.16
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$10
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · all-time $3,915
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? |
No |
27 |
0.955 |
$25.40 |
$0.40 |
+1.6% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? |
Yes |
22 |
0.915 |
$20.11 |
$0.11 |
+0.6% |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? |
No |
16 |
0.945 |
$15.19 |
$0.21 |
+1.4% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
16 |
0.786 |
$12.31 |
$2.31 |
+23.1% |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? |
Yes |
11 |
0.963 |
$10.35 |
$0.35 |
+3.5% |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.955 |
$10.26 |
$0.26 |
+2.6% |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
Yes |
10 |
0.980 |
$10.06 |
$0.06 |
+0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.835 |
$9.49 |
$-0.51 |
-5.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
40 |
0.165 |
$6.60 |
$-3.40 |
-34.0% |