| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
191 |
0.835 |
$159.24 |
$10.96 |
+7.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
135 |
0.845 |
$113.96 |
$-5.96 |
-5.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
127 |
0.853 |
$108.64 |
$11.15 |
+11.4% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
127 |
0.855 |
$108.45 |
$8.71 |
+8.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
111 |
0.963 |
$107.20 |
$9.41 |
+9.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
107 |
0.976 |
$104.45 |
$6.47 |
+6.6% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
153 |
0.675 |
$103.61 |
$14.09 |
+15.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
145 |
0.615 |
$89.16 |
$10.04 |
+12.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
98 |
0.885 |
$86.36 |
$18.82 |
+27.9% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
142 |
0.603 |
$85.86 |
$-11.87 |
-12.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
86 |
0.875 |
$74.84 |
$0.98 |
+1.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
112 |
0.635 |
$71.13 |
$-7.68 |
-9.7% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
100 |
0.645 |
$64.72 |
$7.67 |
+13.4% |
| Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
88 |
0.716 |
$63.07 |
$-7.18 |
-10.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
162 |
0.385 |
$62.22 |
$-7.53 |
-10.8% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
231 |
0.265 |
$61.15 |
$7.04 |
+13.0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
60 |
0.905 |
$54.75 |
$1.51 |
+2.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
343 |
0.155 |
$53.14 |
$5.14 |
+10.7% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,104 |
0.046 |
$51.34 |
$-2.50 |
-4.6% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
75 |
0.625 |
$46.67 |
$-2.72 |
-5.5% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
66 |
0.685 |
$45.16 |
$0.61 |
+1.4% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
63 |
0.705 |
$44.34 |
$11.84 |
+36.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
155 |
0.259 |
$40.09 |
$4.79 |
+13.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
84 |
0.446 |
$37.62 |
$11.37 |
+43.3% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
40 |
0.926 |
$37.00 |
$2.10 |
+6.0% |