| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
191 |
0.845 |
$161.15 |
$12.87 |
+8.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
135 |
0.835 |
$112.61 |
$-7.30 |
-6.1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
127 |
0.855 |
$108.45 |
$8.71 |
+8.7% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
127 |
0.850 |
$108.26 |
$10.77 |
+11.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
111 |
0.958 |
$106.65 |
$8.86 |
+9.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
107 |
0.975 |
$104.34 |
$6.36 |
+6.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
153 |
0.675 |
$103.61 |
$14.09 |
+15.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
98 |
0.935 |
$91.24 |
$23.70 |
+35.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
145 |
0.625 |
$90.61 |
$11.49 |
+14.5% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
142 |
0.605 |
$86.15 |
$-11.58 |
-11.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
112 |
0.635 |
$71.13 |
$-7.68 |
-9.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
77 |
0.860 |
$66.56 |
$-0.30 |
-0.4% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
100 |
0.655 |
$65.72 |
$8.67 |
+15.2% |
| Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
88 |
0.715 |
$62.98 |
$-7.27 |
-10.4% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
231 |
0.265 |
$61.15 |
$7.04 |
+13.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
162 |
0.375 |
$60.61 |
$-9.14 |
-13.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
343 |
0.165 |
$56.57 |
$8.57 |
+17.9% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
60 |
0.905 |
$54.75 |
$1.51 |
+2.8% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,104 |
0.045 |
$50.23 |
$-3.60 |
-6.7% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
75 |
0.625 |
$46.67 |
$-2.72 |
-5.5% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
66 |
0.680 |
$44.83 |
$0.28 |
+0.6% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
63 |
0.710 |
$44.66 |
$12.15 |
+37.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
84 |
0.521 |
$43.95 |
$17.70 |
+67.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
148 |
0.261 |
$38.47 |
$5.10 |
+15.3% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
40 |
0.927 |
$37.03 |
$2.14 |
+6.1% |