PnL (30d)

−$13

Sports · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$10

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

33%

135W / 272L · 216 open

Win Return (30d)

25%

135W / 397L · 91 open

Trades (30d)

623

across 58 markets · ~11 per market

EV / position

−$0.26

avg win $2 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.78

$46 won / $59 lost

Reward / Risk

1.28

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$2

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	43.4% 510W/664L	101	$14,200
⚽ Sports	69.7% 23W/10L	11	$699
🏛 Politics	50.0% 2W/2L	11	$954
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	6	$1,378
₿ Crypto	100.0% 1W/0L	3	$288
🎬 Culture	—	1	$492

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

22 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	130	0.245	$31.85	$2.50	+8.5%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	27	0.715	$19.37	$-0.17	-0.9%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	37	0.460	$17.05	$-5.06	-22.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	26	0.620	$16.36	$-0.06	-0.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	17	0.905	$15.74	$3.08	+24.3%
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	22	0.625	$13.64	$-0.88	-6.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	16	0.835	$13.24	$1.92	+16.9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	26	0.465	$12.09	$-0.54	-4.2%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	26	0.445	$11.57	$-0.10	-0.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	21	0.545	$11.36	$-1.11	-8.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	12	0.870	$10.75	$1.79	+20.0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	21	0.355	$7.49	$-0.61	-7.5%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	20	0.285	$5.82	$-3.12	-34.9%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	13	0.395	$5.13	$0.06	+1.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	6	0.815	$5.13	$0.63	+13.9%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	21	0.245	$5.03	$-0.75	-13.0%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	24	0.155	$3.76	$-4.45	-54.2%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	26	0.105	$2.70	$-8.39	-75.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	17	0.155	$2.66	$-2.37	-47.1%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Yes	7	0.345	$2.58	$0.06	+2.5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	25	0.095	$2.36	$-6.35	-72.9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	5	0.115	$0.57	$-0.34	-37.1%