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Trader leaderboard/UranusProbe

UranusProbe

0x5968454ab9fa39745d5d4adf78f23b80ebe53fc4
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$127
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$29
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-6.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
37%
121W / 204L · 203 open
Win Return (30d)
38%
199W / 327L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
528
across 116 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
−$1.87
avg win $4 · loss $6
Profit Factor
0.48
$116 won / $243 lost
Reward / Risk
0.77
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$37
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $41,159 · all-time $1,190,960

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 46.7% 10,878W/12,396L 5693 $105,253
⚽ Sports 45.9% 2,198W/2,590L 1186 $15,207
🏛 Politics 90.6% 87W/9L 80 $2,059
💵 Economy 33.3% 7W/14L 31 $669
🎬 Culture 92.3% 36W/3L 10 $387
🤖 Tech 100.0% 3W/0L 9 $367
🌤 Weather 53.3% 8W/7L 8 $159
₿ Crypto 60.0% 3W/2L 7 $148
🔬 Science 2 $35

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 411 0.795 $327.22 $88.64 +37.2%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Gabriel Ghetu vs Filippo Francesco Garbero Gabriel Ghetu 391 0.675 $263.91 $-17.59 -6.2%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 458 0.445 $203.81 $-47.71 -19.0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 168 0.977 $164.05 $10.96 +7.2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 161 0.974 $156.74 $6.76 +4.5%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 125 0.935 $116.90 $7.14 +6.5%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 123 0.906 $111.44 $33.02 +42.1%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 456 0.235 $107.16 $-148.82 -58.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes 109 0.950 $103.72 $6.21 +6.4%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 112 0.919 $102.98 $5.80 +6.0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 110 0.924 $101.59 $1.95 +2.0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No 102 0.952 $97.05 $6.97 +7.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? Yes 96 0.999 $95.90 $18.14 +23.3%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? No 104 0.915 $95.37 $-0.90 -0.9%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? No 92 0.975 $89.71 $15.34 +20.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 123 0.705 $86.71 $19.83 +29.6%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? No 88 0.940 $82.72 $17.84 +27.5%
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31? No 84 0.984 $82.61 $9.60 +13.2%
US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? No 84 0.981 $82.40 $3.36 +4.3%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes 128 0.635 $81.28 $-31.99 -28.2%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Yes 86 0.945 $81.27 $6.45 +8.6%
Chelsea FC vs. Juventus Turin: O/U 3.5 Under 80 1.000 $79.96 $31.96 +66.6%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 81 0.960 $78.18 $4.37 +5.9%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 88 0.865 $76.12 $1.45 +1.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 122 0.625 $76.12 $-18.52 -19.6%