| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
2,054 |
0.213 |
$438.59 |
$-35.06 |
-7.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
660 |
0.615 |
$405.75 |
$-120.05 |
-22.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
463 |
0.775 |
$358.59 |
$264.35 |
+280.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
405 |
0.835 |
$338.48 |
$20.27 |
+6.4% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
344 |
0.905 |
$311.35 |
$5.11 |
+1.7% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
313 |
0.925 |
$289.98 |
$9.29 |
+3.3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
315 |
0.905 |
$284.94 |
$43.49 |
+18.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
386 |
0.655 |
$252.80 |
$74.31 |
+41.6% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
511 |
0.462 |
$236.04 |
$-160.99 |
-40.5% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
193 |
0.945 |
$181.95 |
$4.97 |
+2.8% |
| NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? |
No |
116 |
0.960 |
$111.60 |
$0.50 |
+0.5% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? |
No |
102 |
0.955 |
$97.86 |
$1.89 |
+2.0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
108 |
0.830 |
$89.54 |
$16.27 |
+22.2% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,946 |
0.046 |
$89.51 |
$8.70 |
+10.8% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
79 |
0.964 |
$76.06 |
$13.18 |
+21.0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? |
No |
79 |
0.949 |
$75.37 |
$4.16 |
+5.8% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
80 |
0.855 |
$68.75 |
$9.48 |
+16.0% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
2,804 |
0.025 |
$68.70 |
$9.08 |
+15.2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
285 |
0.238 |
$67.96 |
$46.17 |
+211.9% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
78 |
0.850 |
$65.93 |
$18.60 |
+39.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
79 |
0.825 |
$64.98 |
$14.44 |
+28.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
142 |
0.457 |
$64.78 |
$34.13 |
+111.4% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
91 |
0.705 |
$64.17 |
$7.71 |
+13.7% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
63 |
0.955 |
$60.49 |
$2.41 |
+4.1% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
56 |
0.956 |
$53.98 |
$5.79 |
+12.0% |