| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
2,054 |
0.213 |
$438.59 |
$-35.06 |
-7.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
660 |
0.625 |
$412.35 |
$-113.45 |
-21.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
463 |
0.785 |
$363.22 |
$268.98 |
+285.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
402 |
0.845 |
$340.05 |
$24.34 |
+7.7% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
344 |
0.906 |
$311.52 |
$5.29 |
+1.7% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
313 |
0.925 |
$289.98 |
$9.29 |
+3.3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
315 |
0.905 |
$284.94 |
$43.49 |
+18.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
386 |
0.655 |
$252.80 |
$74.31 |
+41.6% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
511 |
0.465 |
$237.58 |
$-159.45 |
-40.2% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
193 |
0.945 |
$181.95 |
$4.97 |
+2.8% |
| NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? |
No |
116 |
0.960 |
$111.60 |
$0.50 |
+0.5% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? |
No |
102 |
0.955 |
$97.86 |
$1.89 |
+2.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
177 |
0.521 |
$92.00 |
$53.82 |
+141.0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
108 |
0.830 |
$89.54 |
$16.27 |
+22.2% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,946 |
0.045 |
$88.54 |
$7.72 |
+9.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
303 |
0.265 |
$80.30 |
$57.13 |
+246.6% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
79 |
0.961 |
$75.82 |
$12.94 |
+20.6% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? |
No |
79 |
0.952 |
$75.57 |
$4.35 |
+6.1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
80 |
0.855 |
$68.75 |
$9.48 |
+16.0% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
2,804 |
0.025 |
$68.70 |
$9.08 |
+15.2% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
78 |
0.850 |
$65.93 |
$18.60 |
+39.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
79 |
0.835 |
$65.77 |
$15.23 |
+30.1% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
91 |
0.710 |
$64.63 |
$8.17 |
+14.5% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
63 |
0.955 |
$60.49 |
$2.41 |
+4.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
76 |
0.745 |
$56.73 |
$6.48 |
+12.9% |