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Trader leaderboard/Arbguy

Arbguy

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$4,871
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
+13.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
76%
26W / 8L
Win Return (30d)
76%
26W / 8L
Trades (30d)
34
across 2 markets · ~17 per market
EV / position
+$2,435.31
avg win $5,489 · loss $619
Profit Factor
8.87
$5,489 won / $619 lost
Reward / Risk
8.87
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$619
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $291,708 · all-time $63,342,443

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 53.5% 363W/316L 46 $825,265
🏛 Politics 76.5% 26W/8L 4 $54,385
🎬 Culture 76.5% 26W/8L 2 $42,135
💵 Economy 2 $12,250

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

26 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 57,486 0.555 $31,904.55 $4,201.51 +15.2%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 35,402 0.865 $30,623.10 $1,370.92 +4.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 155,445 0.165 $25,648.36 $-9,428.18 -26.9%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 24,148 0.976 $23,568.80 $2,613.36 +12.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 96,047 0.225 $21,610.58 $-34,348.63 -61.4%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 892,945 0.024 $21,430.69 $9,492.01 +79.5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19,565 0.865 $16,923.79 $693.00 +4.3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 29,160 0.465 $13,559.40 $-347.30 -2.5%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 26,638 0.405 $10,788.36 $-133.19 -1.2%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1,616,697 0.006 $10,508.53 $-229.57 -2.1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 155,243 0.065 $10,090.81 $-6,992.47 -40.9%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 12,796 0.555 $7,101.98 $734.18 +11.5%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 17,790 0.325 $5,781.64 $-266.84 -4.4%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49,962 0.115 $5,745.69 $-37,724.24 -86.8%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 106,708 0.049 $5,228.71 $-234.54 -4.3%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes 24,390 0.145 $3,536.53 $-12,521.67 -78.0%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 3,310 0.515 $1,704.57 $-84.62 -4.7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 45,900 0.013 $619.65 $-7.85 -1.3%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? Yes 12,918 0.036 $471.51 $-2,558.07 -84.4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 12,155 0.037 $455.81 $-623.56 -57.8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 464 0.850 $394.44 $8.59 +2.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 372 0.961 $356.87 $82.55 +30.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? No 28,517 0.002 $42.78 $-345.43 -89.0%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 87 0.120 $10.45 $-12.36 -54.2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 8 1.000 $8.44 $3.16 +59.7%