PnL (30d)

−$40,200

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$59,602

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-7.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

53%

363W / 316L · 233 open

Win Return (30d)

40%

364W / 548L

Trades (30d)

912

across 46 markets · ~20 per market

EV / position

−$1,218.18

avg win $4,808 · loss $5,659

Profit Factor

0.63

$67,318 won / $107,518 lost

Reward / Risk

0.85

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$8,034

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	53.5% 363W/316L	46	$825,265
🏛 Politics	76.5% 26W/8L	4	$54,385
🎬 Culture	76.5% 26W/8L	2	$42,135
💵 Economy	—	2	$12,250

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

26 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	57,486	0.555	$31,904.55	$4,201.51	+15.2%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	35,402	0.865	$30,623.10	$1,370.92	+4.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	155,445	0.155	$24,093.91	$-10,982.63	-31.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	No	24,148	0.975	$23,532.58	$2,577.14	+12.3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	892,945	0.024	$21,430.69	$9,492.01	+79.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	96,047	0.215	$20,650.11	$-35,309.10	-63.1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	19,565	0.865	$16,923.79	$693.00	+4.3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	24,300	0.465	$11,299.50	$-323.02	-2.8%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	26,638	0.405	$10,788.36	$-133.19	-1.2%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,616,697	0.006	$10,508.53	$-229.57	-2.1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	155,243	0.065	$10,090.81	$-6,992.47	-40.9%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	12,796	0.555	$7,101.98	$734.18	+11.5%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	17,790	0.325	$5,781.64	$-266.84	-4.4%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	49,962	0.115	$5,745.69	$-37,724.24	-86.8%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	24,390	0.225	$5,487.71	$-10,570.48	-65.8%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	106,708	0.050	$5,282.06	$-181.19	-3.3%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	3,310	0.515	$1,704.57	$-84.62	-4.7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	45,900	0.013	$619.65	$-7.85	-1.3%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Yes	12,918	0.040	$510.26	$-2,519.32	-83.2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	12,155	0.037	$455.81	$-623.56	-57.8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	464	0.850	$394.44	$8.59	+2.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	372	0.958	$355.76	$81.43	+29.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	28,517	0.002	$42.78	$-345.43	-89.0%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	87	0.120	$10.45	$-12.36	-54.2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	8	1.000	$8.44	$3.16	+59.7%