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Trader leaderboard/turtle123

turtle123

0x4fff3c11a5d9b77822e01792f933cdb28557be78
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$2,499
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$130
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+4.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
85%
249W / 44L · 102 open
Win Return (30d)
73%
283W / 105L · 7 open
Trades (30d)
395
across 55 markets · ~7 per market
EV / position
+$59.50
avg win $132 · loss $85
Profit Factor
3.09
$3,692 won / $1,193 lost
Reward / Risk
1.55
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$193
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $17,995 · all-time $3,574,560

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 54.0% 327W/279L 126 $122,591
🏛 Politics 77.8% 35W/10L 20 $22,291
🎬 Culture 77.8% 28W/8L 15 $2,802
💵 Economy 75.0% 12W/4L 7 $21,280
🌤 Weather 100.0% 1W/0L 1 $49
₿ Crypto 1 $28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

47 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 11,000 0.790 $8,695.50 $3,195.50 +58.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 3,000 0.968 $2,902.47 $-7.50 -0.3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 11,000 0.209 $2,304.50 $-3,195.50 -58.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes 1,000 0.855 $854.99 $5.00 +0.6%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? No 500 0.972 $485.75 $60.75 +14.3%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? No 1,223 0.385 $470.76 $-127.24 -21.3%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 376 0.900 $338.05 $30.05 +9.8%
Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 400 0.775 $309.98 $-2.00 -0.6%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 1,000 0.305 $305.00 $-65.00 -17.6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31? Yes 299 0.825 $246.94 $4.49 +1.9%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 312 0.650 $202.57 $-24.12 -10.6%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes 319 0.580 $185.24 $-44.71 -19.4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 200 0.886 $177.30 $21.30 +13.7%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Yes 858 0.115 $98.65 $-55.76 -36.1%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 108 0.875 $94.33 $0.89 +0.9%
Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas? No 148 0.625 $92.32 $5.17 +5.9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 5, 2026? Yes 100 0.910 $91.00 $4.00 +4.6%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 100 0.880 $88.00 $-4.00 -4.3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 100 0.855 $85.50 $10.50 +14.0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 100 0.853 $85.26 $14.75 +20.9%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 200 0.395 $78.90 $-23.90 -23.2%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 87 0.892 $77.29 $5.84 +8.2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? Yes 100 0.730 $72.95 $-2.25 -3.0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026? Yes 42 0.845 $35.43 $0.63 +1.8%
Will Trump say "Police Officer" during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 90 0.370 $33.30 $7.20 +27.6%