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Trader

0x4dc3abdf5035e9952d7efaa55934daa457d14702
Scoped to Tech — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$6
Tech · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$5
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-19.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
33%
6W / 12L · 24 open
Win Return (30d)
20%
8W / 32L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
42
across 15 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$1.23
avg win $1 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.32
$3 won / $9 lost
Reward / Risk
0.47
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $38 · all-time $1,395

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 37.5% 9W/15L 26 $98
🤖 Tech 3 $8

Open positions

13 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 25 0.405 $10.19 $-2.73 -21.1%
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? Yes 10 0.928 $9.29 $1.24 +15.3%
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes 16 0.590 $9.21 $1.71 +22.7%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? No 5 0.920 $4.76 $2.35 +98.0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? No 13 0.330 $4.35 $-2.81 -39.3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No 5 0.465 $2.45 $-1.30 -34.7%
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? No 3 0.810 $2.32 $0.52 +28.6%
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 4 0.408 $1.83 $1.13 +161.5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No 3 0.216 $0.60 $-0.60 -49.8%
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 5 0.095 $0.47 $-0.33 -40.6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No 5 0.080 $0.40 $-0.94 -70.3%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? Yes 5 0.002 $0.01 $-0.24 -97.0%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? Yes 10 0.001 $0.01 $-0.49 -99.0%