| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,249 |
0.855 |
$1,067.78 |
$38.26 |
+3.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.335 |
$1,005.00 |
$-454.86 |
-31.2% |
| Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? |
No |
1,000 |
0.950 |
$950.00 |
$197.63 |
+26.3% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,322 |
0.650 |
$859.30 |
$159.96 |
+22.9% |
| Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat? |
Yes |
1,261 |
0.565 |
$712.62 |
$48.07 |
+7.2% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.640 |
$640.00 |
$54.63 |
+9.3% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
577 |
0.905 |
$521.92 |
$12.01 |
+2.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
2,941 |
0.160 |
$470.59 |
$-29.41 |
-5.9% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.575 |
$460.00 |
$58.77 |
+14.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? |
Yes |
692 |
0.660 |
$456.44 |
$101.72 |
+28.7% |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
477 |
0.800 |
$381.72 |
$117.89 |
+44.7% |
| Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
561 |
0.635 |
$356.17 |
$69.46 |
+24.2% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.550 |
$274.99 |
$-10.00 |
-3.5% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? |
No |
321 |
0.840 |
$269.64 |
$14.85 |
+5.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
Yes |
232 |
0.777 |
$180.38 |
$8.56 |
+5.0% |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.875 |
$175.00 |
$17.00 |
+10.8% |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? |
No |
232 |
0.690 |
$160.22 |
$-2.35 |
-1.4% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
250 |
0.560 |
$140.00 |
$-7.50 |
-5.1% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
170 |
0.595 |
$101.15 |
$6.75 |
+7.2% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
190 |
0.410 |
$77.90 |
$3.00 |
+4.0% |
| Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? |
No |
52 |
0.965 |
$49.75 |
$8.48 |
+20.6% |
| Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary? |
Yes |
120 |
0.375 |
$45.00 |
$0.60 |
+1.4% |
| Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? |
No |
30 |
0.930 |
$27.91 |
$6.91 |
+32.9% |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
206 |
0.130 |
$26.84 |
$-0.59 |
-2.2% |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.852 |
$17.04 |
$-0.52 |
-3.0% |