| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,249 |
0.845 |
$1,055.30 |
$25.77 |
+2.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.335 |
$1,005.00 |
$-454.86 |
-31.2% |
| Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? |
No |
1,000 |
0.950 |
$950.00 |
$197.63 |
+26.3% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,322 |
0.645 |
$852.69 |
$153.35 |
+21.9% |
| Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat? |
Yes |
1,261 |
0.565 |
$712.62 |
$48.07 |
+7.2% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.641 |
$641.50 |
$56.13 |
+9.6% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
577 |
0.905 |
$521.92 |
$12.01 |
+2.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
2,941 |
0.165 |
$485.29 |
$-14.71 |
-2.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? |
Yes |
692 |
0.670 |
$463.36 |
$108.64 |
+30.6% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.575 |
$460.00 |
$58.77 |
+14.6% |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
477 |
0.800 |
$381.72 |
$117.89 |
+44.7% |
| Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
561 |
0.635 |
$356.17 |
$69.46 |
+24.2% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.550 |
$274.99 |
$-10.00 |
-3.5% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? |
No |
321 |
0.840 |
$269.64 |
$14.85 |
+5.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
Yes |
232 |
0.777 |
$180.26 |
$8.45 |
+4.9% |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.875 |
$175.00 |
$17.00 |
+10.8% |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? |
No |
232 |
0.695 |
$161.39 |
$-1.18 |
-0.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
250 |
0.560 |
$140.00 |
$-7.50 |
-5.1% |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
170 |
0.605 |
$102.85 |
$8.45 |
+9.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
190 |
0.410 |
$77.90 |
$3.00 |
+4.0% |
| Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? |
No |
52 |
0.966 |
$49.80 |
$8.54 |
+20.7% |
| Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary? |
Yes |
120 |
0.375 |
$45.00 |
$0.60 |
+1.4% |
| Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? |
No |
30 |
0.930 |
$27.91 |
$6.91 |
+32.9% |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
206 |
0.125 |
$25.81 |
$-1.62 |
-5.9% |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.851 |
$17.02 |
$-0.54 |
-3.1% |