| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
1,805 |
0.735 |
$1,326.66 |
$12.98 |
+1.0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
1,328 |
0.455 |
$604.31 |
$-19.92 |
-3.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
600 |
1.000 |
$599.71 |
$79.70 |
+15.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
1,100 |
0.475 |
$522.49 |
$-192.50 |
-26.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
916 |
0.512 |
$468.93 |
$-10.16 |
-2.1% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,996 |
0.146 |
$438.91 |
$-1.50 |
-0.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
966 |
0.410 |
$396.00 |
$-128.82 |
-24.5% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
2,107 |
0.139 |
$291.86 |
$-131.46 |
-31.1% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,411 |
0.143 |
$202.49 |
$3.36 |
+1.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
2,273 |
0.080 |
$181.82 |
$-350.67 |
-65.9% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.160 |
$160.00 |
$-10.00 |
-5.9% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,034 |
0.075 |
$152.56 |
$-30.51 |
-16.7% |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
3,151 |
0.033 |
$103.97 |
$-30.14 |
-22.5% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
4,048 |
0.022 |
$91.07 |
$22.26 |
+32.4% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
3,350 |
0.022 |
$73.70 |
$3.35 |
+4.8% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
4,165 |
0.009 |
$35.40 |
$-2.08 |
-5.6% |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.002 |
$6.00 |
$-14.00 |
-70.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
No |
963 |
0.002 |
$1.44 |
$-16.16 |
-91.8% |