| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
1,805 |
0.740 |
$1,335.68 |
$22.00 |
+1.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
1,010 |
0.630 |
$636.96 |
$-4.51 |
-0.7% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
1,328 |
0.455 |
$604.31 |
$-19.92 |
-3.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
600 |
1.000 |
$599.71 |
$79.70 |
+15.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
1,100 |
0.480 |
$527.99 |
$-187.00 |
-26.2% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,996 |
0.151 |
$453.89 |
$13.48 |
+3.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,026 |
0.195 |
$395.05 |
$-10.13 |
-2.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
966 |
0.375 |
$362.19 |
$-162.62 |
-31.0% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
2,107 |
0.140 |
$295.02 |
$-128.30 |
-30.3% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,411 |
0.143 |
$202.49 |
$3.36 |
+1.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
2,273 |
0.080 |
$181.82 |
$-350.67 |
-65.9% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
2,034 |
0.075 |
$152.56 |
$-30.51 |
-16.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.145 |
$145.00 |
$-25.00 |
-14.7% |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
3,151 |
0.033 |
$102.40 |
$-31.72 |
-23.6% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
4,048 |
0.021 |
$86.62 |
$17.81 |
+25.9% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
3,350 |
0.022 |
$73.70 |
$3.35 |
+4.8% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
4,165 |
0.009 |
$35.40 |
$-2.08 |
-5.6% |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.002 |
$6.00 |
$-14.00 |
-70.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
No |
963 |
0.003 |
$2.41 |
$-15.20 |
-86.3% |