tamirlavi
0x4b3c4565fde3b3d3501623058e105cf8efcd2688
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$25
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$3
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+13.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
73%
11W / 4L · 38 open
Win Return (30d)
41%
21W / 30L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
53
across 20 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$4.10
avg win $7 · loss $1
Profit Factor
18.66
$26 won / $1 lost
Reward / Risk
9.33
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $619 · all-time $68,491
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
79 |
0.972 |
$76.56 |
$9.36 |
+13.9% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
34 |
0.515 |
$17.69 |
$3.61 |
+25.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
24 |
0.545 |
$13.09 |
$2.09 |
+19.0% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
22 |
0.375 |
$8.07 |
$-0.34 |
-4.0% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
2 |
0.140 |
$0.35 |
$-0.05 |
-12.5% |