Trader
0x4afc9e57bd843148018f229064e74f8ec080e11e
PnL (30d)
−$174
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$6
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-15.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
60%
134W / 91L · 6 open
Win Return (30d)
59%
136W / 95L
Trades (30d)
231
across 137 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$1.33
avg win $2 · loss $7
Profit Factor
0.52
$186 won / $360 lost
Reward / Risk
0.32
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$93
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $962 · all-time $264,793
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
6 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? |
No |
21 |
0.875 |
$18.60 |
$1.17 |
+6.7% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
30 |
0.205 |
$6.20 |
$1.01 |
+19.5% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
6 |
0.625 |
$3.81 |
$-0.15 |
-3.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
21 |
0.160 |
$3.33 |
$-1.67 |
-33.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
15 |
0.175 |
$2.59 |
$-0.07 |
-2.8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
114 |
0.018 |
$2.11 |
$-5.89 |
-73.6% |