The-fool-holding-the-bag
0x4999bcd21bef6d657c2e563c483a683fee45c800
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$7
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
76%
78W / 24L · 5 open
Win Return (30d)
73%
78W / 29L
Trades (30d)
107
across 58 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$0.13
avg win $0 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.71
$18 won / $26 lost
Reward / Risk
0.19
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$5
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $118 · all-time $13,170
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
4 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 5? |
No |
31 |
0.993 |
$31.09 |
$0.09 |
+0.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
11 |
0.485 |
$5.51 |
$0.51 |
+10.2% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on August 5? |
No |
5 |
0.980 |
$5.01 |
$0.01 |
+0.2% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
10 |
0.445 |
$4.53 |
$-1.02 |
-18.4% |