The-fool-holding-the-bag
0x4999bcd21bef6d657c2e563c483a683fee45c800
PnL (30d)
−$23
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
69%
106W / 47L · 10 open
Win Return (30d)
65%
106W / 57L
Trades (30d)
163
across 89 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$0.28
avg win $0 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.53
$27 won / $50 lost
Reward / Risk
0.20
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$6
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $118 · all-time $13,170
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
4 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 5? |
No |
31 |
0.988 |
$30.94 |
$-0.06 |
-0.2% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
11 |
0.485 |
$5.51 |
$0.51 |
+10.2% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on August 5? |
No |
5 |
0.979 |
$5.01 |
$0.01 |
+0.1% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
10 |
0.445 |
$4.53 |
$-1.02 |
-18.4% |