| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
357 |
0.963 |
$343.51 |
$40.51 |
+13.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
395 |
0.835 |
$330.06 |
$30.05 |
+10.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
356 |
0.845 |
$301.01 |
$-12.99 |
-4.1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
344 |
0.855 |
$294.14 |
$64.14 |
+27.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
247 |
0.945 |
$233.63 |
$31.63 |
+15.7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6? |
No |
251 |
0.835 |
$209.25 |
$8.25 |
+4.1% |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? |
No |
215 |
0.855 |
$183.54 |
$5.01 |
+2.8% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
176 |
0.945 |
$166.34 |
$16.34 |
+10.9% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
170 |
0.905 |
$153.75 |
$27.09 |
+21.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
155 |
0.895 |
$139.07 |
$38.07 |
+37.7% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
145 |
0.855 |
$124.17 |
$-0.43 |
-0.3% |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? |
No |
125 |
0.968 |
$121.10 |
$11.10 |
+10.1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
163 |
0.725 |
$118.47 |
$-11.76 |
-9.0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
116 |
0.905 |
$104.91 |
$28.31 |
+37.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 7? |
No |
115 |
0.865 |
$99.43 |
$-0.57 |
-0.6% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
116 |
0.855 |
$99.42 |
$-0.58 |
-0.6% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
140 |
0.702 |
$98.13 |
$-2.87 |
-2.8% |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.967 |
$96.70 |
$6.70 |
+7.4% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? |
Yes |
105 |
0.910 |
$95.99 |
$11.99 |
+14.3% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
96 |
0.964 |
$92.56 |
$14.56 |
+18.7% |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? |
No |
100 |
0.815 |
$81.49 |
$6.49 |
+8.7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5? |
No |
130 |
0.620 |
$80.61 |
$-14.55 |
-15.3% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
426 |
0.184 |
$78.66 |
$-47.59 |
-37.7% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
Yes |
86 |
0.910 |
$77.82 |
$13.82 |
+21.6% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? |
No |
84 |
0.860 |
$72.13 |
$27.63 |
+62.1% |