| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
357 |
0.959 |
$341.90 |
$38.90 |
+12.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
395 |
0.835 |
$330.06 |
$30.05 |
+10.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
356 |
0.835 |
$297.45 |
$-16.55 |
-5.3% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
344 |
0.855 |
$294.14 |
$64.14 |
+27.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
247 |
0.940 |
$232.39 |
$30.39 |
+15.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6? |
No |
251 |
0.835 |
$209.25 |
$8.25 |
+4.1% |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? |
No |
215 |
0.855 |
$183.54 |
$5.01 |
+2.8% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
176 |
0.945 |
$166.34 |
$16.34 |
+10.9% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
170 |
0.905 |
$153.75 |
$27.09 |
+21.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
155 |
0.885 |
$137.52 |
$36.52 |
+36.2% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
145 |
0.845 |
$122.71 |
$-1.89 |
-1.5% |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? |
No |
125 |
0.968 |
$121.10 |
$11.10 |
+10.1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? |
No |
163 |
0.725 |
$118.47 |
$-11.76 |
-9.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6? |
No |
212 |
0.525 |
$111.49 |
$-68.51 |
-38.1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
116 |
0.905 |
$104.91 |
$28.31 |
+37.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6? |
No |
133 |
0.755 |
$100.70 |
$0.70 |
+0.7% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
116 |
0.855 |
$99.42 |
$-0.58 |
-0.6% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
140 |
0.702 |
$98.13 |
$-2.87 |
-2.8% |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.967 |
$96.70 |
$6.70 |
+7.4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 7? |
No |
115 |
0.840 |
$96.55 |
$-3.45 |
-3.4% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? |
Yes |
105 |
0.915 |
$96.52 |
$12.52 |
+14.9% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
96 |
0.964 |
$92.56 |
$14.56 |
+18.7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5? |
No |
130 |
0.705 |
$91.66 |
$-3.50 |
-3.7% |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? |
No |
100 |
0.815 |
$81.49 |
$6.49 |
+8.7% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
426 |
0.184 |
$78.66 |
$-47.59 |
-37.7% |