| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
1,508 |
0.165 |
$248.88 |
$41.74 |
+20.2% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,096 |
0.080 |
$167.64 |
$-173.04 |
-50.8% |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? |
Yes |
4,031 |
0.033 |
$131.01 |
$-118.61 |
-47.5% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,623 |
0.075 |
$121.72 |
$-55.80 |
-31.4% |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? |
Yes |
1,020 |
0.110 |
$112.17 |
$-8.14 |
-6.8% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
3,336 |
0.025 |
$83.41 |
$10.68 |
+14.7% |
| Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,539 |
0.022 |
$79.62 |
$-33.15 |
-29.4% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
Yes |
1,206 |
0.065 |
$78.36 |
$-34.75 |
-30.7% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? |
Yes |
1,187 |
0.051 |
$61.14 |
$-40.33 |
-39.7% |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? |
Yes |
1,183 |
0.046 |
$55.01 |
$-8.88 |
-13.9% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
300 |
0.143 |
$43.07 |
$19.06 |
+79.4% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
200 |
0.215 |
$43.00 |
$-59.00 |
-57.8% |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? |
Yes |
955 |
0.041 |
$38.67 |
$-69.18 |
-64.1% |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? |
Yes |
1,014 |
0.035 |
$35.89 |
$-16.66 |
-31.7% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? |
No |
100 |
0.315 |
$31.50 |
$-3.50 |
-10.0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
Yes |
765 |
0.040 |
$30.24 |
$-19.89 |
-39.7% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
40 |
0.485 |
$19.40 |
$1.40 |
+7.8% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
340 |
0.055 |
$18.70 |
$-6.95 |
-27.1% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
1,002 |
0.009 |
$9.51 |
$-5.34 |
-36.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
251 |
0.036 |
$9.16 |
$-21.50 |
-70.1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? |
Yes |
500 |
0.012 |
$6.00 |
$-33.03 |
-84.6% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
Yes |
75 |
0.065 |
$4.86 |
$-8.42 |
-63.4% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
293 |
0.015 |
$4.24 |
$-3.72 |
-46.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? |
Yes |
105 |
0.029 |
$2.99 |
$-6.46 |
-68.3% |