PnL (30d)

+$23

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$29

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+4.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

82%

9W / 2L · 45 open

Win Return (30d)

41%

23W / 33L

Trades (30d)

56

across 20 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

+$5.70

avg win $13 · loss $17

Profit Factor

2.33

$40 won / $17 lost

Reward / Risk

0.78

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	81.8% 9W/2L	20	$636
🏛 Politics	—	2	$58

Open positions

24 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	1,508	0.165	$248.88	$41.74	+20.2%
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	2,096	0.080	$167.64	$-173.04	-50.8%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	4,031	0.033	$131.01	$-118.61	-47.5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,623	0.075	$121.72	$-55.80	-31.4%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Yes	1,020	0.110	$112.17	$-8.14	-6.8%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	3,336	0.025	$83.41	$10.68	+14.7%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	3,539	0.022	$79.62	$-33.15	-29.4%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	1,206	0.065	$78.36	$-34.75	-30.7%
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	1,187	0.052	$61.73	$-39.74	-39.2%
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	1,183	0.046	$55.01	$-8.88	-13.9%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	300	0.143	$43.07	$19.06	+79.4%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	200	0.215	$43.00	$-59.00	-57.8%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Yes	955	0.041	$38.67	$-69.18	-64.1%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	1,014	0.035	$35.89	$-16.66	-31.7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	100	0.315	$31.50	$-3.50	-10.0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	765	0.040	$30.24	$-19.89	-39.7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	40	0.485	$19.40	$1.40	+7.8%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Yes	340	0.055	$18.70	$-6.95	-27.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	1,002	0.009	$9.51	$-5.34	-36.0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	Yes	251	0.036	$9.16	$-21.50	-70.1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?	Yes	500	0.012	$6.00	$-33.03	-84.6%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	75	0.065	$4.86	$-8.42	-63.4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	293	0.015	$4.24	$-3.72	-46.7%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	Yes	105	0.030	$3.20	$-6.25	-66.1%