PnL (30d)

−$48

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$10

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-4.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

11%

4W / 31L · 2 open

Win Return (30d)

11%

4W / 33L

Trades (30d)

37

across 11 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$4.81

avg win $6 · loss $12

Profit Factor

0.33

$24 won / $72 lost

Reward / Risk

0.50

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$67

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	28.3% 63W/160L	62	$9,520
🌤 Weather	3.4% 1W/28L	6	$105

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 5?	No	500	1.000	$499.61	$2.75	+0.6%
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	158	0.700	$110.78	$7.91	+7.7%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	Yes	30	0.885	$26.55	$4.65	+21.2%
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	17	0.375	$6.35	$-4.15	-39.5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.998	$4.99	$3.31	+197.0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.425	$2.21	$-0.23	-9.6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.340	$1.70	$-0.55	-24.4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.135	$0.70	$-1.54	-68.6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 5?	No	845	0.001	$0.42	$-6.41	-93.8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	350	0.001	$0.17	$-2.76	-94.0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	35	0.001	$0.02	$-9.93	-99.8%