PnL (30d)

−$137

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$37

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

28%

63W / 160L · 22 open

Win Return (30d)

27%

65W / 180L

Trades (30d)

245

across 62 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$2.48

avg win $9 · loss $11

Profit Factor

0.60

$202 won / $339 lost

Reward / Risk

0.83

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$160

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	28.3% 63W/160L	62	$9,520
🌤 Weather	3.4% 1W/28L	6	$105

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	158	0.700	$110.78	$7.91	+7.7%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	Yes	30	0.805	$24.15	$2.25	+10.3%
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	17	0.375	$6.35	$-4.15	-39.5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.970	$4.85	$3.17	+188.6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.425	$2.12	$-0.12	-5.6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.355	$1.85	$-0.60	-24.5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	5	0.125	$0.65	$-1.59	-70.9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	35	0.001	$0.02	$-9.93	-99.8%