| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
4,688 |
0.775 |
$3,633.32 |
$182.06 |
+5.3% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
2,443 |
0.765 |
$1,868.89 |
$36.64 |
+2.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
3,811 |
0.440 |
$1,676.93 |
$179.16 |
+12.0% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? |
No |
1,105 |
0.855 |
$944.84 |
$277.83 |
+41.7% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
1,020 |
0.840 |
$856.80 |
$203.45 |
+31.1% |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
682 |
0.940 |
$641.12 |
$72.78 |
+12.8% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
No |
1,701 |
0.365 |
$620.85 |
$70.19 |
+12.7% |
| Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? |
Yes |
2,897 |
0.190 |
$550.46 |
$49.78 |
+9.9% |
| Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
No |
698 |
0.710 |
$495.44 |
$-36.20 |
-6.8% |
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? |
No |
666 |
0.735 |
$489.30 |
$63.83 |
+15.0% |
| Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? |
No |
468 |
0.970 |
$454.04 |
$61.97 |
+15.8% |
| Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? |
Yes |
617 |
0.700 |
$431.77 |
$-40.66 |
-8.6% |
| Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? |
No |
392 |
0.964 |
$377.22 |
$94.86 |
+33.6% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
882 |
0.410 |
$361.78 |
$47.01 |
+14.9% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
No |
888 |
0.394 |
$349.88 |
$53.10 |
+17.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
1,800 |
0.165 |
$296.93 |
$-284.89 |
-49.0% |
| Another US debt downgrade before 2027? |
No |
331 |
0.865 |
$286.22 |
$23.69 |
+9.0% |
| Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
Yes |
305 |
0.905 |
$276.02 |
$19.70 |
+7.7% |
| Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
1,707 |
0.157 |
$267.97 |
$109.72 |
+69.3% |
| Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? |
Yes |
311 |
0.755 |
$234.56 |
$-0.20 |
-0.1% |
| Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
2,278 |
0.101 |
$230.05 |
$-51.75 |
-18.4% |
| Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-08-05? |
Yes |
537 |
0.415 |
$223.01 |
$34.69 |
+18.4% |
| Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19? |
No |
253 |
0.770 |
$195.02 |
$-32.83 |
-14.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
3,800 |
0.051 |
$193.44 |
$-126.29 |
-39.5% |
| Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
1,211 |
0.145 |
$175.61 |
$-273.60 |
-60.9% |