| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
4,688 |
0.765 |
$3,586.44 |
$135.18 |
+3.9% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
2,443 |
0.765 |
$1,868.89 |
$36.64 |
+2.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
3,811 |
0.440 |
$1,676.93 |
$179.16 |
+12.0% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? |
No |
1,105 |
0.855 |
$944.84 |
$277.83 |
+41.7% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
1,020 |
0.840 |
$856.80 |
$203.45 |
+31.1% |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
682 |
0.940 |
$641.12 |
$72.78 |
+12.8% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
No |
1,701 |
0.365 |
$620.85 |
$70.19 |
+12.7% |
| Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? |
Yes |
2,897 |
0.190 |
$550.46 |
$49.78 |
+9.9% |
| Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
No |
698 |
0.740 |
$516.38 |
$-15.27 |
-2.9% |
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? |
No |
666 |
0.735 |
$489.30 |
$63.83 |
+15.0% |
| Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? |
No |
468 |
0.969 |
$453.58 |
$61.51 |
+15.7% |
| Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? |
Yes |
607 |
0.655 |
$397.46 |
$-68.27 |
-14.7% |
| Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? |
No |
392 |
0.969 |
$379.38 |
$97.02 |
+34.4% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
882 |
0.410 |
$361.78 |
$47.01 |
+14.9% |
| Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
2,278 |
0.157 |
$357.60 |
$75.80 |
+26.9% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
No |
888 |
0.397 |
$352.10 |
$55.32 |
+18.6% |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
1,800 |
0.165 |
$296.93 |
$-284.89 |
-49.0% |
| Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
1,707 |
0.162 |
$276.50 |
$118.26 |
+74.7% |
| Another US debt downgrade before 2027? |
No |
331 |
0.835 |
$276.29 |
$13.76 |
+5.2% |
| Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
Yes |
305 |
0.905 |
$276.02 |
$19.70 |
+7.7% |
| Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
1,137 |
0.215 |
$244.48 |
$-191.41 |
-43.9% |
| Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? |
Yes |
311 |
0.755 |
$234.56 |
$-0.20 |
-0.1% |
| Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19? |
No |
253 |
0.816 |
$206.41 |
$-21.44 |
-9.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
3,800 |
0.051 |
$193.44 |
$-126.29 |
-39.5% |
| Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-08-05? |
Yes |
490 |
0.355 |
$174.00 |
$2.68 |
+1.6% |