5038813185
0x453ae5e896ea243f332ed97c1c77bf2888ce81d2
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$527
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$2,159
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-5.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
10%
6W / 55L · 38 open
Win Return (30d)
6%
6W / 93L
Trades (30d)
99
across 7 markets · ~14 per market
EV / position
−$105.31
avg win $8 · loss $181
Profit Factor
0.03
$15 won / $542 lost
Reward / Risk
0.04
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · all-time $1,759,803
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Open positions
5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
68,713 |
0.080 |
$5,497.04 |
$-2,993.00 |
-35.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
4,612 |
0.036 |
$166.02 |
$-666.22 |
-80.1% |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.695 |
$69.49 |
$24.49 |
+54.4% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
1 |
0.935 |
$1.29 |
$0.19 |
+16.9% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
Yes |
22 |
0.025 |
$0.55 |
$-5.54 |
-91.0% |